Default would be an inexpressibly stupid event
Mashed articles by Pat Darnell | Oct 12, 2013 | Bryan TX
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Every investor should be afraid of a U.S. government debt default. But tearing a portfolio apart because of the risk of a default is risky, too. A U.S. default would be catastrophic. Even one day in default would harm the nation's credit rating, and have serious ripple effects, including:
• Damage consumer confidence, and possibly the economy.
• Cause interest rates to spike higher.
• Hurt stock and bond prices.
• Wound the value of the U.S. dollar on international currency markets. (John Waggoner, USA TODAY 9:34 a.m. EDT October 7, 2013. LINK)
Here's Who Profits If the Government Defaults | Mother Jones: "1. Short sellers: Most folks invest in stocks and bonds hoping the value of their investments will increase. But there's also money to be made by short selling—betting that the value of a stock or bond will drop. Short selling is an investment strategy that's typically employed by sophisticated investors and financial firms, but technically anyone can do it. Investors who bet that the value of US Treasury securities will dip would likely profit. Because a default could cause the US stock market to crash, shorting almost any US stock could make you money. In fact, you can even invest in specific mutual funds that specialize in short selling. "It's a very powerful and disillusioning feeling to know that smart rich people can make money even when America goes over Niagara Falls in a barrel," says Jeff Connaughton, a former investment banker and White House lawyer during the Clinton administration."
'via Blog this'
Precious metals and Virtual Money [BitCoin] will ride out the Government shutdown. Housing will suffer and jolt owners into foreclosures due to soaring interest rates -- but the banks, and holding companies make out like banshees. It will be a wild west land grab for greedy bankers.
" ... Jacob Lew, the current Treasury secretary, said in a letter to Congress in September: "The debt limit impasse that took place in 2011 caused significant harm to the economy and an unheard of downgrade to the credit rating of the U.S.. The drawn-out dispute caused business uncertainty to increase, consumer confidence to drop, and financial markets to plunge. If Congress were to repeat that brinkmanship again this time, it could inflict even greater harm on the economy. And if the government should ultimately become unable to pay all of its bills, the results could be catastrophic. (John Waggoner, USA TODAY 9:34 a.m. EDT October 7, 2013. LINK) ... "With those poor credit ratings brought on by default, we pay higher interest rates for our credit. And government securities for sale would have to offer higher interest rates of return to attract buyers. That also increases interest rates for long term money like Housing, and would make borrowing for home buyers and businesses higher at the same time.
CONCLUSION
Markets will probably sell off as the deadline looms. If there's a last-minute resolution – as there was in 2011 – stocks and bonds should soar in value, as should the U.S. dollar.
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_________________________Reference
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2013/10/who-would-benefit-government-default
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2013/10/07/investments-in-default/2933457/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2013/10/07/position-your-portfolio-for-default/2935395/
http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-investing-100720136
http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-gains-as-u.s.-government-shutdown,-default-fears-weaken-dollar-253567
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/04/what-is-bitcoin-explained
http://thegenesisblock.com/us-debt-ceiling-highlight-bitcoins-role-asset-class/
http://tucsoncitizen.com/morgue/2008/12/30/106350-financial-crisis-gives-pawnshops-a-boost/
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-5-things-20131008,0,6197200.story
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/21/perverse-incentives-lead_n_328378.html
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/11/preppers-survivalist-doomsday-obama
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