Retrieved by Pat Darnell
If we spend enough time on the Internet -- and I want to get this right -- we will come across several Conspiracy Theories. And sometimes the sheer magnitude of information on the subject we encounter can make us crazy.
Evidence will seem as if to come from military, or earthquake, or governmental in origin, as we go into turmoil over whether something is true or not. To "Believe" in a conspiracy, well that is the ultimate confounding result. The alternative to "Dis-believe" can be just as big a conundrum, our personal low.
Is there somewhere "in-between Belief and Dis-belief" where we curmudgeons could dwell?
I found this site by Googling "Conspiracy, theory, probability" ... and thought it a good place to start. It has a good list of the recognizable potential conspiracy stories to make a group that could repeat over time.
For instance, 1) ... murder covered up by police, 2)... did the Hand of God really destroy that city ... 3) do siblings consistently plot to assassinate each other... or, 4) ... do all best friends of Kings and such, secretly covet the King's wife ... ?
Here is the Game as the Site poses the questions:
World History Past Modals of Possibility and Probability Discussion Questions
:: [SOURCE] " ... Choose one of the conspiracy theories below and change the sentence with words and
expressions in the useful language box below to make it have the amount of likelihood that you
think is really so. Does your partner agree with you? ..."
“… must have…” “…might have…”
“…could have…” “…probably…”
“…possibly…” "… almost certainly…”
… can’t have… "…may have…"
President Kennedy (JFK) was assassinated by the CIA in conjunction with the Mafia.
An alien was dissected at the Roswell American air force base.
Jack the Ripper was never caught because he was someone important and the police protected him
The Americans never would’ve used the atom bomb on a European country
The Americans dropped the atom bomb more to scare the Soviet Union than to stop the war, because they knew it was going to finish soon anyway
Alexander the Great was gay
9/11 was planned by the US government as an excuse to invade Iraq and so gain control of its oil
There weren’t any Jews in the World Trade Center on 9/11
The explosion in the Pentagon on 9/11 came from inside the building
Princess Diana was murdered by the British Royal Family because she was going to marry a Muslim
The Apollo moon landing was a hoax filmed in a studio by Stanley Kubrick
The Europeans or Americans would’ve got involved in the Yugoslav War earlier if the Bosnians had been Christians
King Arthur was a real person and was a Roman fighting with Ancient Britons against the invading Germanic Anglo Saxons
Mary Queen of Scots was conspiring to assassinate Queen Elizabeth I
The Japanese deliberately delayed the declaration of war until after the attack on Pearl Harbour
The main reason Henry VIII split the Church of England from the Catholic Church and so turned
England into a Protestant country was so he could divorce his wife and marry Anne Boleyn
Jesus married Mary Magdalene and had a child or children
The main reason British sailors went exploring in the age of Elizabeth I was to impress her and so marry her and become King ..."
Which ideas above are included in movies, books or TV programmes you know or know about?
What other historical movies have you seen (from your country or other countries)? How likely do
you think the story in that movie is to be true?
EXCERPT -- " ... I guess most people who believe in conspiracy theories either have some benefit in pretending to believe or they really think the theories are likely to be true. Those who think conspiracy theories are likely to be true, are victims of some kind of “Bayesian fallacy”: Bayes (English mathematician, 1702-1761) proved a theorem about conditional probabilities, nowadays called “Bayes’ theorem“. [LINK]